Economic Indicators Q4 2025

Economic Indicators February 9, 2026

Amid a global landscape marked by tariff uncertainties from the U.S., shifting trade relations, and broad geopolitical tensions, 2025 was still a year defined by momentum and meaningful wins for the Central Okanagan. The year saw major advancements within the region’s manufacturing sector: the Okanagan Manufacturing Database continued to expand, with over 750 firms listed on the platform, and the launch of the Okanagan Manufacturers Network is set to unite manufacturers operating from Salmon Arm to Osoyoos, offering networking opportunities, educational programming, and events that showcase the depth of local manufacturing talent.

The region’s presence was strongly felt on national and international stages. Central Okanagan representatives attended Agri Tech Innovation in San Francisco, Web Summit Vancouver, and industry tradeshows across Canada. The region was also represented at Grocery Innovations Canada, giving local food and beverage manufacturers valuable exposure to national buyers. Several incoming delegations visited throughout the year, including cherry buyers and investors focused on manufacturing, tourism, and the wine sector. These efforts generated promising investment inquiries from the U.S., U.K., and Asia in areas such as vertical farming, winery resorts, AI, and SaaS.

Together, these achievements made 2025 a year of connection, visibility, and forward motion, showing that the Central Okanagan continues to grow its influence, creativity, and resilience on both the national and international stage.

Labour Market:  Changing Employment and Steady Job Postings

The Central Okanagan labour market in Q4 2025 shows notable shifts compared to Q4 2024, underscoring the quarter‑to‑quarter volatility in local data. Key indicators such as unemployment, participation, and employment rates come from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS), a monthly telephone and online survey. In the Central Okanagan, the LFS samples roughly 222 households each month, with each household participating for six consecutive months. Because of the small sample size, Statistics Canada cautions that monthly estimates can fluctuate and recommends focusing on longer‑term trends.

The LFS estimates that the labour force expanded by 18.4% to 143,000 individuals from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025, an indication that many more residents were actively seeking and securing work compared to Q4 2024 (Statistics Canada). Employment also rose from 115,233 to 132,767 over the same period. These increases pushed the labour force participation rate up from 58.7% to 68.8%, showing that many more residents were active in the labour market in late 2025 (Statistics Canada).

However, the number of people seeking work grew faster than the number of jobs, leading to a higher unemployment rate. Unemployment rose from 4.6% in Q4 2024 to 8.4% in Q4 2025, indicating a much tighter labour market with more people looking for work (Statistics Canada). This shift reflects the kind of volatility Statistics Canada notes in smaller regions, where limited sample sizes can lead to noticeable swings in quarterly data.

The overall job postings in the region totaled 4,820. When looking at postings by industry, Healthcare and Social Assistance had the most jobs posted at 550, reflecting ongoing demand for care‑related roles. Retail Trade followed with 434 postings, showing steady hiring heading into the year-end period. Finance and Insurance recorded 149 postings and, Manufacturing had 137, both indicating consistent but more moderate recruitment levels (Conference Board of Canada, Vicinity Jobs). Together, these changes show a labour market adjusting unevenly, with growing participation but varying employer demand across categories and industries.

Housing Starts vs Building Permits

Housing activity in the Central Okanagan shifted noticeably between 2024 and 2025. Housing starts declined from 3,790 in 2024 to 2,600 in 2025, showing a slowdown in the number of new residential units beginning construction (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation). In contrast, building permit values increased from $1,140,376,133 to $ $1,354,084,749 over the same period (COEDC Data Portal). This rise in permit value suggests that construction investment remained strong and was directed toward higher‑value projects. Building permits can include a mix of residential, commercial, industrial, institutional, and major renovation projects, so the higher total value likely reflects larger‑scale or higher‑cost developments taking place in 2025, even as the volume of new housing starts decreasing.

Business License Activity

Business licensing activity in the region continued to show steady growth year over year. In 2024, a total of 16,802 business licenses were issued, increasing to 17,299 in 2025 (COEDC Data Portal). This upward trend reflects growing entrepreneurial activity in the local economy, with more entrepreneurs establishing operations and existing businesses maintaining their presence in the Central Okanagan. The consistent rise in licensing volumes highlights a resilient and expanding business climate.

YLW number of passengers

Kelowna International Airport (YLW) further reinforced the region’s economic strength with a newly released impact study showing over $2 billion in economic output and more than 9,200 jobs supported in 2024, demonstrating how aviation, tourism, and investment continued to drive local prosperity even in an unpredictable global climate (Kelowna International Airport). This broader economic impact is mirrored in the airport’s passenger activity, which continued to show strong year‑over‑year momentum. YLW recorded an average of 186,685 passengers in Q4 2024, rising to 199,185 in Q4 2025, reflecting steady growth in regional travel demand. Total annual passenger volumes increased from 2,133,582 in 2024 to 2,315,432 in 2025, highlighting a robust 8.5% annual increase and underscoring the airport’s role as a key driver of economic activity in the Central Okanagan.

Conclusion

Q4 2025 highlighted the Central Okanagan’s continued resilience amid shifting economic conditions. Labour market participation and employment grew steadily, even as unemployment rose due to more residents actively seeking work. Housing activity reflected a pivot toward higher‑value development, with permit values increasing despite fewer housing starts, while median home prices eased slightly but remained competitive among major Canadian markets. Tourism and air travel continued to strengthen the region’s visibility, supported by major industry events, and Kelowna’s recognition as UNESCO Creative City of Gastronomy. Together, these factors reinforced the region’s momentum and adaptability as the region wrapped up 2025.